Bulls vs. Minutemen: Three Keys to a Buffalo Win

Week 7 of the NCAA Football season is here, and that means we’re fully entrenched in conference play. This week, the UB Bulls take on the Minutemen of UMass for the third year in a row – and for the second time since UMass re-joined the MAC. UB opens as -4.5 point favorites against the Minutemen, and ESPN analytics project UB wins this matchup 58.9% of the time. To secure their second consecutive victory, UB will need to accomplish several key goals – but first let’s meet the Minutemen 

NOT YOUR MOTHER'S UMASS

UMass entered the season only able to go up, having gone winless in 2025. They've done just that, opening their season with a win versus power-four Rutgers as well as three more consecutive victories (three blowouts, two against lower-division opponents, then newly-MAC Sacramento State). They were doing well enough to get Coaches' Poll Top 25 votes, but their stock has fallen in recent weeks with consecutive losses to Eastern Michigan (38-14), and Miami (OH) (20-19). Suddenly, UMass went from 4-0 to 4-2.

Their success has come and gone with the presence of one senior quarterback - Virginia Tech transfer William “Pop” Watson III.  Watson was one of the best QB’s in the MAC through the first five weeks of the season – amassing 987 total yards and 11 TDs to go with only two INTs. But his fantastic season came to a screeching halt in Week 5 versus Eastern Michigan when he went down in the 1st Quarter with an apparent ankle injury. He didn’t see the field in Week 6.

UMass initially turned to true freshman QB Aedan McCarthy to man the post versus Miami (OH), and he struggled going 17/33 with 182 yards without any touchdowns – but he too suffered an injury in the 4th quarter of that game. That means the Minutemen were down to third string sophomore Logan Inagawa who went 6/6 with 83 yards and a TD in the limited action he saw versus the Redhawks. He came up just short of completing a comeback, too, but UMass’ decision to go for two after scoring a late TD left them one point short of Miami’s 20. McCarthy has already been declared out for the contest, and Watson is considered "unlikely"

So UMass comes into this contest on somewhat of a losing streak, and they’re on a skid versus Buffalo as well. UB has won each of the last two contests versus UB – winning 34-3 in 2024 and 28-21 in 2025. What does UB have to do to fully extinguish the early promise of this UMass season?

Make the QB Beat You

Obviously, Watson wasn’t the only good player on UMass’ offensive roster. They’ve got an impressive two-headed monster at running back with senior Curtis Kimmons IV (who is questionable for Saturday) and sophomore Elijah Faulkner – both of whom have amassed almost 300 yards already. They have a decent receiving core headlined by leading senior receiver T.Y. Harding who has amassed over 300 passing yards, as well as TD threat (and Buffalo native) senior tight end Max Dowling who already has 3 scores this year. They’re fifth in the MAC in total offense for a reason (339.2 yards-per-game). The reality is that Watson is the catalyst that makes the Minutemen offense hum. It’s not clear if Watson will play on Saturday, but if he doesn’t, UB needs to make the QB in his place (and the rest of the Minutemen offense) feel Watson’s absence. 

UB’s rushing defense currently ranks seventh in the MAC (149.83 rushing yards against per game), but a Buffalo victory requires taking the aforementioned Kimmons and Faulkner out of the contest early. If the unproven QBs McCarthy or Inagawa beat you, so be it. Miami (OH) held UMass to 65 rushing yards on 30 carries. (Some better pass defense would’ve benefitted the Redhawks), but they still held UMass to 19 points and got the win. To win, UB’s gameplan will have to look similar – force the QBs to throw to pass-ready defenses.

Get To Third Down on Defense

Unless you plan on securing a turnover every possession, most defensive holds conclude with a stop on third down and a punt. Good offenses don’t get to third down. The best offenses stay on the field after third down, converting somewhere around 40-50% of the time. UMass, overall, struggles as an offense on third down – converting only 35.82% of the time this season which is in the bottom half of the MAC. But, to their credit, they do a good job of avoiding third down – having only 67 attempts at third down on the season which is the fewest in the MAC. 

Fortunately for UB, they’re one of the best defenses in the MAC on third down – allowing a conversion only 33.33% of the time. Especially considering the aforementioned QB situation, forcing UMass into third down (preferably third and long) only furthers the goal of keeping the RB’s out of the game – and forcing the backup QB to beat you. But further, it keeps the Bulls in a part of the game they seem comfortable with.

Give Yourself a Chance!

The UB offense is extremely top-heavy in its passing game. Senior wide receiver Chance Morrow leads the receiving core with 34 receptions (no one else has more than 13), 414 receiving yards (no one else has more than 135), and 6 TDs. Of the seven receiving TDs UB has this season, Morrow has caught six of them! The top-heavy nature, in combination with the relative success of senior running back Messiah Burch, will in all likelihood give the UMass defense exactly two playmakers to gameplan for. If you stop those two stars, you screech this Bulls offense to a halt. UB is faced with a couple of options: 

The best (and hardest) solution is to find a Robin to Morrow’s Batman. Be it Clint Walker or Dwayne Early Jr. or Jaylen Andrews, Burch and Morrow’s job become so much easier if the opposing defenses are not gameplanning solely for them. But this offense seems to be what it is – there seems to be no saviour coming for sophomore QB Jason Wright – so what to do instead? 

If you’re going the easy way, UB needs to find a way to get Morrow and Burch in open space as much as possible. That’ll require a heavy dosage of screens, runs and options until the UMass dam breaks. The problem with that approach is that in order to stay on the field the offense needs to get 10 yards in 3 plays – and if this gameplan doesn’t work it’s impossible to do so. In turn, the high volume of plays necessary to grind the Minutemen down isn’t possible and the defense is left completely out to dry. So my plea is this: give the team a chance. It doesn’t have to be a TD every drive, but just do enough to get the stars the ball.

UB doesn’t need to reinvent itself to beat UMass, but it does need to put together a complete game. Slow down Kimmons and Faulkner, force the Minutemen into third-and-long, and give Morrow and Burch enough opportunities to make a difference. Watson’s availability could change the challenge considerably, but Buffalo can’t build its gameplan around hoping he stays on the sideline. The Bulls have a chance to make it three straight against UMass and secure their second consecutive victory this season. Now they need to give themselves that chance on both sides of the ball.